CAP games are my friend

I've never been much of a cash game player. Not sure why really - but tournaments and SNG's have always been my focus. Listening to podcasts though it had become apparent to me that if I want to reduce variance the best avenue to take is playing in cash games. Make no mistake about it, tournaments are probably the most high variance form of poker out there. SNG's don't have that much variance but the capability to turn a large profit is pretty difficult as most people play moderately well in those and it's difficult to overcome the 7.5%+ rake. As I pointed out in my last post, I played 595 SNG's and showed a profit of $1.80. While VIP bonuses from Pokerstars adds to that sum a bit, it's still an awful lot of playing and not much to show for it. Obviously winning $2 is a lot better then losing a large sum but my goal is to build a bankroll and not at a $100 a month rate.

So with that being said, this month I've decided to make a concerted effort to play cash games. I had some money on Lock - I ran that up $150 playing a mix of $.50-1 and $1-2 NLHE and PLO as well as some high buy in SNG's. I got killed playing these super turbo SNG's - all luck in those and I wasn't very lucky. Fortunately I made up for it in regular SNG's and cash games. Was initially going to try and compete in the Bluff Challenge but when I saw what it would take to even be near the top, I decided to test the Lock cash out and see if I can actually receive a check from them within a month. I have a hunch it's going to take a while as it's been 3 days since I requested it and it's still "pending approval". They might as well say "we're holding onto your money as long as humanly possible in the hopes that you will cancel the cashout."

Over at Pokerstars, I started out the month playing .05/.10 full ring (while most online players prefer 6 max because they can see more hands, I 12 table and prefer full ring as it gives me a little time to observe how my opponents play and make better decisions). Played 75 minutes, 915 hands, profit of $8. Not bad, so I decided to make the jump to .10/.25. Played 3 hours, nearly 2000 hands, lost $25. OK maybe I suck at this. I reviewed the hands I played though and felt like I played okay so I wasn't ready to give up cash just yet. Despite the loss I decided to move up higher in stakes to .25/.50. With my bankroll in the mid $700 range and buying in for the minimum (I prefer playing short as my tournament skillset suits shorter stacked play a bit better then uber deep stack play) of $20, I could 12 table comfortably for about 1/3 of my roll. If I lost that, I would obviously move back down. Played a quick 30 minute session and won $18 bringing me to break even for the month after the first week of April.

And then I discovered CAP games. Oh CAP games, how I love thee. Obviously a short sample size, but in the last week I've played about 2.5 hours and approximately 1,750 hands of .25/.50 CAP. The CAP is set to $10 so even with 12 tables going, my maximum risk was minimal. Profit over the 4 quick (I usually have time to play for 30-60 minutes) sessions... $105. Now here's the funny part - playing uber tight aggressive in these games is very +EV as people are generally idiots. My normal VPIP/PFR in tournaments is somewhere in the 15-25/10-20 range depending on table make up. That was pretty much how I was playing in the non CAP cash games as well. In the CAP games, however, I'm running at 10.1 VPIP/6.1 PFR. My strategy in these is simple. In early position, I fold most hands, raise the big hands and will limp with a few (but not many... I was routinely folding AT/AJ/KQ and at times AQ depending on how aggressive the table was). If I play a hand it was usually either in position or when I had a hand that I thought had good equity against my opponent. I would liberally re-raise a player with a top 20% hand if they had a high VPIP/PFR number (yes, I use these numbers in these situations as it's a pretty accurate indicator of a player's aggression level). And I wouldn't even try and get cute with AK, JJ+. If I had one of those 5 hands it was going in pre-flop. If someone has a better hand, it's only $10 at most I'm losing... I can live with that.

The play at these is so bad it's comical at times. I guess people feel like if they can only lose $10 they can gamble it up. I've been called by T8s, K5s, pairs between 2's and 10's about a kajillion times (which the majority of time I crush if I move in), etc. Gotten lucky a few times and unlucky a few as well (those situations have broken about even). The really good thing though is that in the 2.5 hours, I've earned over 200 VPP's. It takes me about 75 $6.50 SNG's to earn that amount which even if I am 24 tabling would take me about 3 hours. Now variance might come back and bring my win down some, but for now, I'm going to keep rolling with these CAP games. Might even throw in some longer sessions when work dies down a bit.